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  • CTR Seminar Series: Dr. Rachel Copperman, Senior Associate at Cambridge Systematics
    5:00 PM-7:30 PM
    10/04/2016

    Center For Transportation Research – UT Austin, Guadalupe Street, Austin, TX, United States

    Center For Transportation Research – UT Austin, Guadalupe Street, Austin, TX, United States

    We are excited to host Dr. Rachel Copperman, Senior Associate at Cambridge Systematics, for the first installment of the 2016-17 CTR Seminar Series, sponsored by the UT Austin ITE/ITS Student Chapters. The meeting details are presented below, along with an abstract for the discussion and a bio of Dr. Copperman.

     

    Meeting Details:

    • Date: Tuesday, October 4, 2016
    • Time: 5:00 – 6:30 PM – Refreshments served at 5; presentation to begin around 5:15 PM.
    • Location: CTR Main Conference Room, 4th Floor UT Administration Building, 1616 Guadalupe Street
    • Dinner will be provided.

     

    Development of a Risk Analysis Methodology for Quantifying the Uncertainty of Travel Demand Forecasts

    All travel demand models, whether they are trip-based models or activity-based models, are abstractions of complex systems. The impacts of the abstractions should be understood and reflected in the forecasts produced by the model.  In addition, future conditions that are either embedded as assumptions or are included as inputs into the model cannot be predicted with certainty.  Most decision-makers rely on point forecasts, and thus, fail to recognize the uncertainties that accompany predicted outcomes.

     

    To incorporate uncertainty into the California High-Speed Rail ridership and revenue forecasting process and provide decision-makers with a better understanding of the likelihood that forecasts will fall within a specified range, a risk analysis approach was developed that expresses forecast results as probabilities of achieving different outcome levels.  The approach identified potential risk factors, and systematically narrowed the set to the most critical risk variables.  Since it was not feasible to run the full travel demand model thousands of times, the methodology used a reasonable number of full travel demand model runs to estimate relationships between forecast revenues and the risk variables.  This “meta-model” was coupled with rigorously researched distributions for the risk variables and used in a Monte Carlo simulation to transform a manageable number of scenarios using the full revenue model into 50,000 unique forecasts.  From this simulation, probability distributions of total revenue were estimated.

     

    Biography:

     

    Rachel B. Copperman, a Senior Associate with Cambridge Systematics, has over ten years of experience in Passenger and Freight Travel Demand Modeling and Forecasting, Travel Survey Methods, Discrete Choice Modeling, and Activity and Tour-Based Modeling.  Dr. Copperman is currently the deputy project manager of a team implementing a 100% GPS with prompted recall household travel survey for the Maricopa Association of Governments.  She is also currently the deputy project manager on an effort to develop an innovative statewide model to support the evaluation of high-speed rail alternatives in the State of California.  Dr. Copperman currently serves as a member on TRB’s Travel Demand Forecasting Committee and TRB’s Intercity Passenger Rail Committee.  Dr. Copperman received a Doctorate and Master’s degree in Transportation Engineering from the University of Texas at Austin, and a Bachelor of Science degree in Systems Engineering from the University of Virginia.

     

     

    Mark your calendars and please RSVP if you plan to attend (and to indicate any dietary restrictions).

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  • City of Austin Transportation with Mayor Steve Adler (YPT-Austin Member Event)
    11:30 AM-1:00 PM
    10/26/2016

    Center For Transportation Research – UT Austin, Guadalupe Street, Austin, TX, United States

    Center For Transportation Research – UT Austin, Guadalupe Street, Austin, TX, United States

    How is the City of Austin working to help alleviate traffic congestion? What does the City have in store for the future?
    Join YPT-Austin on Wednesday, October 26th for our October Roundtable to learn more about City of Austin Transportation, featuring special guest speaker Mayor Steve Adler! This event is for YPT-Austin members only and lunch will be provided FREE for current members. YPT-Austin membership is only $20 annually! If interested in joining, please visit the link below!

    Networking starts at 11:30 and presentations begin at noon.
    Register online HERE to reserve your spot and lunch!

    • WHEN: Wednesday, October 26, 2016 from 11:30 AM to 1:00 PM
    • WHERE: Center For Transportation Research – UT Austin – 1616 Guadalupe Street, Suite 4.202. Austin, TX 78701

    Interested in JOINING YPT-Austin? YPT-Austin is the city’s go-to transportation organization for networking with young professionals. Annual YPT membership is currently $20 and dues can be paid online. To BECOME A MEMBER of YPT-Austin visit https://my.yptransportation.org/join

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